tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post2424078957530231615..comments2024-08-05T00:13:41.798-07:00Comments on Without Geometry, Life is Pointless: March Madness IIAvery Pickfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433339146333801163noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-84457366161539427492011-04-06T08:16:06.765-07:002011-04-06T08:16:06.765-07:00Following up to John's comment, there have bee...Following up to John's comment, there have been numerous times where the "Vegas Line" on a game is different from what they actually think in terms of the teams' abilities. Gambling lines are set with the intent of getting 50% of the people to bet on each side.<br /><br />If the gambling line isn't set well enough, it "shifts" which can create weird situations where gamblers are hedging bets. In one famous example, a betting line went from 1 point to 4 points, and a LOT of money was bet for one team to win the 1-point wager, then lose the 4-point wager -- a tiny loss if it doesn't happen, and a huge win if it does -- and the team won by 3.<br /><br />Go Butler! Has any team in the NCAA final shot worse from 2-point land than from 3-point land before?? That's CRAZY.Bowen Kerinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06715818962840193625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-89828853815406236282011-04-05T15:08:07.510-07:002011-04-05T15:08:07.510-07:00@Jonathan: How'd you do? Did your team win or ...@Jonathan: How'd you do? Did your team win or did your pool win?<br />@John: Thanks for visiting and commenting. I'd agree that, unless they get particularly greedy and stray from trying to get an equal # of bets on both sides, you're right that the Casino always wins.<br />@Bowen: It's as if Butler had a bag filled with luck matter that they efficiently used over the course of the tournament (check out the last 30 seconds of the Pitt game) and that they then got to the final game and the bag was not only empty of luck matter, but filled with luck anti-matter. Or something like that...all I know is that was a painful game to watch.Avery Pickfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10433339146333801163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-25773893101931960812011-04-05T13:39:28.893-07:002011-04-05T13:39:28.893-07:00... but what are the chances Butler misses that ma...... but what are the chances Butler misses that many shots in a row?Bowen Kerinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06715818962840193625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-55155055686959225822011-04-05T06:00:11.084-07:002011-04-05T06:00:11.084-07:00Well, what I am taking from this blog is that no m...Well, what I am taking from this blog is that no matter what people are betting the casino's are still making money regardless of the outcome of the game. However, I am only taking a High School statistics class and nowhere near being able to say what is wrong nor what is right; but I will say that I heavily agree with all of the computations made based on the information given.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07994383919453612106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-79181565038467908712011-04-03T07:24:39.660-07:002011-04-03T07:24:39.660-07:00Oh, I'm not taking myself too seriously. And I...Oh, I'm not taking myself too seriously. And I hesitate to argue with NS (though he does miss, occasionally)<br /><br />And I'm caught - my favorite team wins, I'm happy. My favorite team loses, I win a pool. (true) <br /><br />There's a more serious lesson in that! Maybe not.<br /><br />JonathanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-88488119422757822472011-03-30T08:26:36.416-07:002011-03-30T08:26:36.416-07:00And a less statistical argument for an 11 seed pot...And a less statistical argument for an 11 seed potentially having a better shot than an 8 seed, consider the case where there are just a few great teams and then lots of good teams (the Women's tournament might be a good example of this). For simplicity sake, let's say the #1 seeds are the great teams. An 8 seed team will have to play this great team in the 2nd round of the tournament (unless the #1 seed loses its first game, which has never happened). An 11 seed wouldn't have to play this team until the regional finals (the 4th game). More opportunities for the #1 seed to get unlucky and get knocked off by another team (although it's worth noting that VCU did beat the #1 seed Kansas this year).Avery Pickfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10433339146333801163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-321586169079357222011-03-30T08:21:45.639-07:002011-03-30T08:21:45.639-07:00@Jonathan: I should preface this by saying that I ...@Jonathan: I should preface this by saying that I am definitely definitely no where close to being a statistics expert. So feel free to take this with a grain of salt. I agree that these statistical representations, in comparison to previous years, help further the argument that this year's tourney is an anomaly. That said, I think we have to be careful not to give meaning to the seed numbers that isn't there. The seeding isn't a ratio-scale measure (or, I would argue, even an interval scale), meaning all we can say is that a 1 seed is higher than a 2 seed. They are ordinal measurements. We can't say that it's twice as high (or anything else). So I'm not sure how informative things like the standard deviation will be. <br /><br />As for an 11 seed being more of a surprise than an 8 seed, I also don't see this as a forgone conclusion. <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/when-15th-is-better-than-8th-the-math-shows-the-bracket-is-backward/" rel="nofollow">Nate Silver</a> at 538.com said it better than I, though.Avery Pickfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10433339146333801163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-75194126016514759882011-03-30T03:49:25.400-07:002011-03-30T03:49:25.400-07:00And the square root of the mean of the squares is ...And the square root of the mean of the squares is over 7... a record unlikely to be matched in our lifetimes.<br /><br />8 and 11 vs 8 and 8, I think, is a big difference.<br /><br />JonathanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1075593398139537131.post-67839407678027115032011-03-29T19:51:39.709-07:002011-03-29T19:51:39.709-07:00The sum of the seeds is 25... freakishly high.The sum of the seeds is 25... freakishly high.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04908814256266075475noreply@blogger.com